Throwing Darts in the Dark

We always expect the year to begin quietly, to enable us recover slowly from the hangover of the holidays and enable us prepare for the coming twelve months at a stately pace. But as any drunk will tell you, the one morning you need everything to be quiet is the time when the whole house erupts in a cacophony – the maid decides to vacuum-clean while singing religious songs, the children have decided they want to join the choir and make these intentions known loudly and off-key, and construction across the road begins unusually early.

2015 has decided not to wait a decent length of time before beginning in earnest. The headlines have come thick and fast – the massacres in Paris and Baga, the unfortunate death of Fidel Odinga and the consequent beginnings of a rapprochement between the two loudly opposed political sides in Kenya, and the continuing fallout from the rapidly dropping oil prices globally.

I’m not one to particularly assign significance to a twelve-month chunk of time, or to boldly make predictions and prognoses, but these headlines do point in certain directions which will have an impact on us – maybe in 2015, maybe later, but certainly in ways big enough to matter.

The Charlie Hebdo killings in France are one more thread in a broad tapestry of an issue that has become vitally important this century. Not just the place of jihadist Islam in societies that are not primed to fight it, but also the place of immigrants, and whether countries have an innate characteristic that can resist attempts to change it through violent means.

The story of last week’s massacres in Paris is not just about violently angry militants murdering cartoonists for their racist images; it is also about a policeman named Ahmed Merabet. Merabet is the officer shown pleading for his life, but then being shot in the head by the militants before they make their escape. Within hours of his identity being confirmed, Merabet had become the subject of the hashtag #JeSuisAhmed, in direct echo (and perhaps opposition) to #JeSuisCharlie, which was the chosen symbol of solidarity with the notion of free speech. A Facebook user named Dyab Abou Jahjah stated: ‘I am not Charlie... I am Ahmed the dead cop. Charlie disrespected me and ridiculed my faith and culture and I died defending his right to do so. #JeSuisAhmed’. 

Kenya is obviously facing the same questions. We have suffered the depredations of our own band of violent militants who kill and maim in the name of Islam. We have our own hero in Abdul Haji, whose exploits rescuing people at the Westgate mall put the lie to the notion that we could condemn an entire religion or ethnic group for the murderous acts of a few.

The conversation continues in Nigeria. As the year began, Boko Haram continued in their vicious ways, killing thousands in the town of Baga. There has been a growing outcry that this has not made the headlines in the way that the Charlie Hebdo killings did (and there’s a whole set of discussions and arguments about why a dozen deaths in France hold the attention of the world in a way that thousands of deaths in Nigeria don’t). The issue, though, is the larger one of how Africa’s rising powers will deal with such grave threats to their nationhood. Kenya and Nigeria are at the forefront of dealing with existential threats – in Nigeria, the very notion of the nation is being tested; in Kenya, it is the no less important idea of harmony between religions and ethnic groups that is on the line.

Which brings us to the death of Fidel Odinga. Much has been made of the comity between political leaders during the mourning period, as contrasted with the uncontrolled utterances of their followers. It does seem to point to the fact that political differences in Kenya are only skin-deep, and that tragedy, or other circumstances, can quickly close the gap we feared was a gulf. Why is this important? Part of Kenya’s risk matrix is political risk. It is one of the key things that could keep investment away, and keep us from attracting and retaining the best talent. If Fidel Odinga reconciles the two sides – not uniting them, since political differences will remain, but at the very least bringing back civility – then his greatest service to the nation will have come at the very end of his life.

Lastly, oil prices. There really is nothing of value to say about this, except for one very important thing. No one actually knows what’s going on, from one day to the next. I do not recall reading a single analysis at the beginning of 2014 that predicted a rapid, and sustained, fall in oil prices, and that that would happen last year. So discount the notions and opinions of anyone who would now have you believe that they can tell you what’s coming this year. Any predictions which come true are either as a result of stating the obvious – looking at trends and extrapolating these – or throwing darts in the dark. One may hit the bull’s eye, but it doesn’t mean that this is a feat that can be repeated.

Also published in the Business Daily on January 13, 2015, at http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Opinion-and-Analysis/-Ethnic-schisms-to-test-true-character-of-nations/-/539548/2586970/-/x9a9kcz/-/index.html