The road accident crisis in Kenya, and why we should stop relying on our guts to make decisions. A version of this was published in the Business Daily on 29 October 2013 at http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Opinion-and-Analysis/Why-data-driven-action-is-key-to-putting-the-brakes/-/539548/2050800/-/d1s5c7/-/index.html
Often, when I was travelling in a
matatu, I used to end up idly wondering which the statistically safest seat is,
in the case of an accident. I always calculated it from the type of vehicle it
was (14-, later 18-seater vs. 29-seater), the amount and type of exposed metal,
and the likelihood of being in a head-on collision vs. a tailgating accident,
or a rollover.
Another of my favourite activities was
watching a programme named ‘Air Crash Investigation’ on the National Geographic
channel. The programme, which was fascinating in a slightly morbid sense,
detailed how plane crashes – and even near misses – were investigated until the
cause of the accident was known. Many times, the cause of the accident was a
tiny mechanical part that failed, or pilot error that stemmed from something as
innocuous as arrogance or sleepiness.
All this came back to me last week,
after the latest of the fatal Ntulele accidents. On Thursday, a matatu was
involved in a collision with a bus in Narok which led to the deaths of nine. This
was just a few metres, and a few months, from where and when a bus crash had
left more than forty dead. A day earlier, the Cabinet Secretary in charge of
Transport and Infrastructure, Michael Kamau, had launched an initiative that
would require all serious accidents to be investigated. The second Ntulele
accident came too soon for the Ministerial directive to have been implemented,
but it showed the potential, and limitations, of Eng. Kamau’s well-meaning
initiative.
Kenya is one of the deadliest countries
on which to use a road. Motor vehicles are operated by people who have no
business being behind the wheel. Obviously defective vehicles ply our roads, or
are used for the wrong purposes (motorcycles used to ferry whole families, or
cows; station wagons used as 14-seater passenger vehicles). Pedestrians dash
across busy highways expecting that drivers will brake on time. Traffic
policemen are more concerned with bribes than with stopping carnage, and public
service operators treat the profit motive as the ultimate motivation, all else
be damned.
Every time there is a serious road
crash, much hand-wringing ensues, followed by earnest, wrong-headed pledges to
finally do something about them. And many of these directives – from Presidents
to government ministers and police, are often utterly inadequate. Even worse,
certain areas are declared ‘black spots’. Bumps are erected after public outcry,
and, most ridiculous of all, prayers are held to ‘cleanse’ stretches of roads
of ‘demons’, given that these are baying for blood which can only be sated by
the sacrifice of a few humans.
All these initiatives and directives
fail at one core level. There is very little reliable, data on road use, and
misuse, in Kenya. We do not know, to any useful degree, what causes accidents.
We cannot ascertain whether particular makes of vehicles are prone to
accidents, and why. We do not know why people cross roads at certain places,
and thus determine where to place footbridges. We’re not sure why these
footbridges, even when they’re built at
great cost, are shunned (except for guesses about laziness and African
peculiarities).
The new National Transport and Safety
Authority will succeed, or fail, on that one strategy. Lee Kinyanjui and his
team have a chance to change the face of road safety, and bring down the
terrible death and injury toll, if they become obsessive about data-driven
action. This will mean getting away from press-conferences and proclamations,
and investing in a wealth of computing power and data-mining experts. It will
mean that every single traffic incident would have to be investigated. (This
may be a controversial recommendation, but think: most traffic accidents in
urban settings do not lead to death or serious injury. Typically, even traffic
police recommend that ‘watu wasikizane’ – the fender-benders should reach
informal agreement. But this leads to very little actionable data on urban traffic,
which leads to bad road design and control).
Were data to be the key determining
force in traffic control in Kenya (‘Air Crash Investigation’-style), we would
understand, to an unimpeachable degree, what actually causes road accidents in
Kenya, and what mitigating measures to take to actually reduce them and their
severity (and not simply rely on gut-feel or intuition). It would instantly
become obvious which vehicles, roads, and types of road users are more prone to
mishap, and what to actually do about it.
Computing power and cost is coming down
to a level when we can actually install data collection devices (‘black boxes’)
on every single vehicle on the road in Kenya, and use the information generated
to make the roads less lethal.
And I would then, finally get an answer
to my question on which the statistically-safest seat is in a matatu.
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