Zukabaga had a shocking earnings report the other day. Supposedly, people have stopped signing up to his main Facebook (Mukuru kwa Zuckerberg) service, and even those signed up are using it less. Also, short video is supposedly the thing now.
So, some quick thoughts.
Zukabaga’s patience is about to snap (heh heh - sorry for the pun) when it comes to the monetisation of WhatsApp. Y’all have been chatting, making audio and video calls, and planning weddings, funerals and gossip sessions on the platform. It’s the go-to service for ‘private’ untappable phone calls (but IYKYK). I’m not sure that Zuckerberg will continue to provide all this without a very strong push to monetise the service. I would expect, at the very least, to see ads within Wotisap. What format they take I’m not sure. Also, how to do it without creeping anyone out (you’re in a Wotisap group discussing a funeral, and you see an ad for coffins, for instance, or any other conversation-related advertising) is going to be the big challenge. Slowly backing out of end-to-end encryption could be another direction.
On to the other one. Zukabaga claims that one of the reasons he lost more money in one day than I or my descendants will ever see, is that short video has taken over social media. That should not surprise anyone (although I’m not a fan).
However, even as he continues to steal ideas from TikTok and Snapchat, there will be an inadvertent result of making social media *less* social. How and why? Follow my thought process for a second.
Social media as we have known it is peer-to-peer. You pop off a quick (written) opinion about sports, or politics, or gossip, or family and friends. You write or read comments. And on and on throughout the day (and night).
Video, on the other hand, is a different proposition. Viral video is stupendously difficult to create. Either you stumble upon something that inadvertently goes viral, or you have to put in immense effort into scripting, shooting (or animating), and editing a video. And making sure that it’s interesting and violates no copyright. It’s too much effort for most of us to do spontaneously, day-to-day. What is then happening is that this space is given over to professionals or very dedicated amateurs (who monetise this and become professionals themselves). The vast majority of us become mere consumers.
Look at how most users interact with TikTok. It’s a service you sit back to consume. You don’t see a great video and make one of your own in response. In some senses, TikTok (and all peer and competitor services) become more like television than anything. Which, ultimately in my opinion, will not solve Zukabaga’s problem. A service where users sit back to consume content, as opposed to a vigorous, noisy space where users are as invested in what they give as what they take, does not help him much long term, because these users will drift away.
What about the metaverse, you ask? I don’t have very solid thoughts on that except for one. The winner in the metaverse is not going to be the service that is fully immersive. That, to me, is too out there. I think the more sticky application is one that existed some years ago.
Remember Google Glass? The concept of augmented reality is where I think things could get exciting. Advances in facial recognition, near field communication, and spatial awareness (where a device can detect where it is in three dimensions) can be revolutionary. Imagine wearing glasses (or even better, contact lenses) which can project, into your line of sight, information such as who you’re meeting. This would be a boon for those of us who forget faces easily.
Commercial applications are even more exciting (or depressing). You could see reviews (or calorie information) when a meal is set in front of you. You could scan barcodes or QR codes with your ‘eyes’, giving you tons of additional information about an object. You could view maps and directional information without having to look down at a device. Further down the road, you could project and manipulate 3D virtual objects. For example, you could look at your future (as yet unbuilt) house as it would look, even as the site is still weed-infested farmland. You and your architect could move walls and entire rooms virtually.
Of course, this would mean that privacy goes down the toilet even more than it already is. Zukabaga has no reputation to speak of when it comes to respecting that. But other incipient players could be even more malevolent.
Let’s see.
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