In case you’re bewildered by Corona and Covid and where we are in all this, I tried to analyse it all at one go. This may not be 100% accurate, and is only from a Kenyan/ East African perspective, but it can give you a solid idea of the trajectory so far:
1. In the first phase of the pandemic (roughly to around mid-March), there were some dangerous misconceptions about the virus. Not because anyone was necessarily profiting from it, but because it was not understood. Some of the misconceptions included that black people do not get it, that the hot conditions in the tropics prevent it from catching and/ or spreading, and that young people shrug it off easily. Some cases, at this time, were being found in Africa, but they were almost invariably foreigners and non-blacks.
2. In the second phase, cases in Africa in the native population started emerging. We announced our first case on Friday the 13th. At this stage, the policymakers deployed the only toolkit they had - shut everything that involves mass gatherings at once. This included schools. Don't forget that some of us were really debating whether to pull our children out of school even if gaament was not going to announce it. This phase was roughly to end-March/ early April. Maybe until around Easter.
3. In the latter phases of the second phase, and the third phase, it was what is called the kaza ninii phase. Intensively trace, test and isolate, prepare for a wave of infections and hospitalisations. At the same time, introduce more stringent measures. Shut entire countries down, such as UG and Rwanda, introduce curfews and movement restrictions in Kenya, and aggressively ramp up the medical response. This is in the hope that we can vigorously tamp down infections, and in that famous phrase, flatten the curve. We are coming to the end of this phase.
4. The fourth phase is what is beginning. Since the spike in numbers (positive results, hospitalisations and deaths) has not yet occurred in Africa at the levels that had been predicted, and some countries globally are coming off their peaks, what is the normalisation strategy? Is it reckless to re-open sectors of society and the economy? Could some of it backfire? Much is unknown, including the full epidemiology of the disease. There could be something to be said for the resilience of Africans, or BCG, or exposure to chloroquine and its derivatives. The carefully considered assumption here is that measures have and continue to work, or there’s something to the epidemiology being somewhat different here. But it is a very careful change in tactic all over the world, with perhaps an intention to reverse the ‘loosening’ at an instant should conditions demand it. We could, obviously, be still in some peril, given that the cold, rainy season (which sees a peak in respiratory illnesses from the common cold to flu) has just begun in East Africa. The North is going into their summer, which may see some relief for them.
5. The fifth phase begins around October. Two things may happen - a second wave as the North starts their colder season, which may then see lockdowns and other measures re-introduced, and the possibility of medical mitigation measures, for instance the Oxford vaccine, new understanding of the virus and how to fight it, etc.
1. In the first phase of the pandemic (roughly to around mid-March), there were some dangerous misconceptions about the virus. Not because anyone was necessarily profiting from it, but because it was not understood. Some of the misconceptions included that black people do not get it, that the hot conditions in the tropics prevent it from catching and/ or spreading, and that young people shrug it off easily. Some cases, at this time, were being found in Africa, but they were almost invariably foreigners and non-blacks.
2. In the second phase, cases in Africa in the native population started emerging. We announced our first case on Friday the 13th. At this stage, the policymakers deployed the only toolkit they had - shut everything that involves mass gatherings at once. This included schools. Don't forget that some of us were really debating whether to pull our children out of school even if gaament was not going to announce it. This phase was roughly to end-March/ early April. Maybe until around Easter.
3. In the latter phases of the second phase, and the third phase, it was what is called the kaza ninii phase. Intensively trace, test and isolate, prepare for a wave of infections and hospitalisations. At the same time, introduce more stringent measures. Shut entire countries down, such as UG and Rwanda, introduce curfews and movement restrictions in Kenya, and aggressively ramp up the medical response. This is in the hope that we can vigorously tamp down infections, and in that famous phrase, flatten the curve. We are coming to the end of this phase.
4. The fourth phase is what is beginning. Since the spike in numbers (positive results, hospitalisations and deaths) has not yet occurred in Africa at the levels that had been predicted, and some countries globally are coming off their peaks, what is the normalisation strategy? Is it reckless to re-open sectors of society and the economy? Could some of it backfire? Much is unknown, including the full epidemiology of the disease. There could be something to be said for the resilience of Africans, or BCG, or exposure to chloroquine and its derivatives. The carefully considered assumption here is that measures have and continue to work, or there’s something to the epidemiology being somewhat different here. But it is a very careful change in tactic all over the world, with perhaps an intention to reverse the ‘loosening’ at an instant should conditions demand it. We could, obviously, be still in some peril, given that the cold, rainy season (which sees a peak in respiratory illnesses from the common cold to flu) has just begun in East Africa. The North is going into their summer, which may see some relief for them.
5. The fifth phase begins around October. Two things may happen - a second wave as the North starts their colder season, which may then see lockdowns and other measures re-introduced, and the possibility of medical mitigation measures, for instance the Oxford vaccine, new understanding of the virus and how to fight it, etc.
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