Uchumi and Nakumatt are dead. If they're not Careful, Tuskys, Carrefour, Naivas and Chandarana will soon be as well

The next time you're in the supermarket for your weekly/ monthly shopping, take a look at your cart. Chances are, 80% of the items in there are repeat items. Your last shopping cart had the same items, from the same brands, in the same quantities. The same toothpaste, the same toilet paper, the same soap. Even for higher-end items, it will likely be the same yoghurt, in the same quantities, of the same brand. What this means is that for you (and I and most of us), the weekly/ monthly trip is a waste of time. The need to 'touch and feel' our shopping is for very, very few items - maybe for fruit and veg (and even then, it's only when we're being picky) and a few other niche items.

If someone was able to deliver this 80% of your shopping cart, then you wouldn't bother with your big weekly/ monthly shopping trip, with its attendant stress of driving, parking (or the stressful multi-trip mathree journey), frustration with not finding the items you want, and then carting your shopping up to your eighth-floor apartment.

What this means is that while Nakumatt and Uchumi are on their deathbeds, even healthy supermarket chains like Tuskys, or Naivas, or Carrefour, or Chandarana, should also be on the lookout. They're vulnerable in a way that I'm not sure they're seeing. Yes, they could introduce home delivery services, but even those that have are doing it in a half-hearted, desultory manner.

Think about it: if someone could deliver your toilet paper, your milk, bread, soap and toothpaste; if they could deliver your eggs, unga, diapers, majani and your meat; if they could do it for the same price (or even cheaper), why wouldn't you take the service up? If you're a connoisseur, you could still make your trip to your specialist baker, but a significant portion of your shopping - the tedious, boring bit - would be sorted out without it occupying your time or your mental bandwidth.

The first iteration of this service would probably be provided by the supermarket chain itself. Even an independent provider would probably buy the goods at Carrefour, or Tuskys, or Naivas, and then deliver. But soon enough, a savvy provider would ask themselves why they need the supermarket as a go-between. Carrefour, and Tuskys, and Naivas have a huge cost structure, seeing as they have to pay huge rents in premium locations (think of all the fancy shopping malls in which they are located), and armies of staff. The savvy entrepreneur would, soon enough, go directly to the toilet paper, and toothpaste, and majani manufacturer. They (or the savvy entrepreneur) don't need to have their warehouses in a fancy, expensive part of town. Heck, they don't even need to be in town (you can have your warehouse in Ngong or Mlolongo and serve Nairobi quite efficiently).

On the other side, you will ask how the delivery will be done. The excuses are legion - Kenyans don't have addresses, most of us buy tiny quantities of goods. However, Safaricom and Zuku are able to provide service to the most densely-populated parts of town, and they're dependent on exact addressing. The Post Office Corporation is comatose because they're too dense to see the possibilities (ask yourself - of the fleets of motorcycle delivery people in all towns in this country, how many belong to Posta? Why can't I summon a Posta nduthi to City Market and ask them to deliver a consignment of meat to my house as I do with James, my nduthi guy? But that's a story for another day).

Within the next seven years (and probably, much, much sooner), a weekly/ monthly drive or mathree trip to a mall to do shopping in a big box supermarket will sound as antiquated and unnecessary as lining up at KPLC to pay your monthly electricity bill.

And if Tuskys, Naivas, Carrefour and Chandarana do not act now, in as urgent a manner as if their hair was on fire, then they'll be just as dead as Uchumi and Nakumatt.