Why Zuma's and Magufuli's Visits Yielded Such Different Outcomes

So, back to Kenya's foreign policy, and two contrasting outcomes (from broadly similar events):

1. It's increasingly clear (since we have no evidence otherwise) that Jacob Zuma's visit a few weeks ago was timed to his advantage. He needed to be away from the heat back home, and this was as good a place as any to undertake a visit to. Think about it as when you're in a bit of trouble at home, and decide to visit a pal's place to watch the game. If you're the pal, then you should at the very least extract something from this - if you use me as a landing pad, then you bring along the drinks. In this case, Kenya needed two very crucial things from South Africa at the time. We needed the unnecessarily cumbersome, expensive and silly visa rules changed, and we needed demonstrable support for Amina Mohamed's candidature for the AUC Chair.

In the event, we got absolutely nothing. JZ airily dismissed the visa issue by saying that he would 'consider' a change in visa rules. The South Africans have been 'considering' for three years now, and Kenya has been too chicken to impose reciprocal visa rules: all South Africans travel to Pretoria to apply, pay a significant amount of money for the visa, wait for a week and get a single entry visa if they're successful. A week after he was here, Clayson Monyela from the South African government emphasised that southern Africa had an AUC Chair candidate - Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi from Botswana. Meaning that there was no deal for Ms. Mohamed, and no mention that Dr. Venson-Moitoi had failed in her bid in July.

2. John Pombe Magufuli's visit on Monday looked like it was following the same script. I was at State House myself to cover it, considering how important it is to resolve all the issues of trade, tourism and infrastructure. At first, it looked like a wash - a press briefing in which the two Presidents said little, and no announcement on the important stuff.

However, dig a little deeper and you realise that the visit was more strategic than that. Mr. Magufuli has come to the realisation that there's a limit to his perceived animosity towards Kenya, and the EAC. First, South Africa (and hence the SADC) is not in the best shape, economically or governance-wise, for it to be the basket in which you put all your eggs. Also, Kenya and Tanzania working together, or at the very least talking, is much more powerful than shows of pique from either side. So the trick was to have a photo op at State House (which puts paid to the notion that Magufuli hates Kenya, or disdains President Kenyatta, or is afraid to fly), and leave the heavy lifting of the issues to the Joint Ministerial Commission. We may not get everything we need, and we'll still squabble occasionally. But as long as the sting has been taken out of the relationship, chances of every little disagreement being blown out of proportion are lessened.

Now to sort out South Sudan. And Burundi. And Somalia. And Ethiopia. And maybe get back a column in the paper so that I stop making you read long Facebook posts.