Why the UK May Yet Stay in the EU

Here is how the UK may yet remain within the EU, even after the ‪#‎Brexit‬vote. But first, an aside: you remember those classic Top Gear episodes where Jeremy and his mates would race to different points in Europe testing cars vs. mass transport? (the greatest one is S6E6 - the Merc McLaren SLR to Oslo). Well, now half the episode would involve time spent at Passport Control.

Anyway, since Friday, a few developments. First, ‪#‎Bregretters‬ are a real phenomenon. They may be an amusing distraction, but their grievances (displaced as they are) are real. The Leave campaigners lied, and this is causing quite a number of people to say their votes were based on fraud (major fibs about the money to the NHS, the status of immigration etc). This may be meaningless, but it leads to the second (perhaps THE major) element of the scenario):

The #Brexit vote on Thursday (as you may have heard) is not binding, legally. At most, it is simply advisory to Parliament, which has to pass the necessary (changes to) laws to make Brexit a reality. If the mood of the people has changed so drastically, there is a distinct possibility that Parliament may start to hedge its bets (calling for a second referendum? Simply ignoring the result of Thursday's vote now that everyone has stared into the abyss?)

Third element: British politics is in the greatest state of disarray for more than a century. The two main parties are leaderless. The attempt to find the new Conservative and Labour leaders may trigger a snap election (which is the only logical way to resolve the massive contradictions and rifts revealed by the referendum). If the election is called, it automatically becomes a referendum on the referendum, and it will be campaigned as such.

Angela Merkel, the most powerful person in Europe, is hinting that Brexit may not be Brexit. She has stared into the abyss as well, and she doesn't like what she sees. Frank-Walter Steinmeier may be sounding less charitable, but don't forget that this is the man who would contemplate a defanged NATO. Fact is, even as EU leaders demand haste in the exit, they are surrounded by extremists. AfD, Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, The Northern League. Once the EU leaders are done expressing themselves, they may calm down and look at 'softer' alternatives for the UK, especially if the Brits are sufficiently contrite. They may work on a painful package of punishments, but they may then chill out.

But, as I said, this may be prescience, or utter poppycock. I'm simply an interested observer sitting on a keyboard in Nairobi. What do I know?